The Informant

A new report from the PEW Center for the States digs into that question. With state budgets shrinking and prison costs high, PEW reports states are looking at recidivism–the rate at which offenders return to prison–”as a key indicator of the return they receive from their correctional investments.” The report, titled “State of Recidivism” continues: “To be sure, the performance of corrections agencies should be judged by whether the recidivism rate is rising of falling over time.” All other things being equal, the report says, a state that’s trying to improve its ability to deter crimes and rehabilitate those offenders who can change, will see its recidivism rate drop.

So, the report asks, which states are improving their correctional systems and how?

PEW took a look at three states that managed to substantially decrease their recidivism rates:

1. Oregon dropped its rate by 32 percent to 22.8 percent (the lowest in the nation) between 1999-2004. How? “Oregon officials attribute their success to a comprehensive approach to reform” that included such changes as eliminating prison time as a punishment for parole violations (and using jail and community sanctions instead), requiring offenders to participate in pre-release case management, and requiring that prison programs be “evidence based.”
2. Michigan has dropped its inmate population by 12 percent and closed some 20 prisons. Much of that success has been attributed to Michigan decreasing the number of people it returns to prison on technical parole violations. Further progress is expected from a new program that Michigan instituted in 2003 and expanded in 2008, which develops a rehabilitation plan for each offender when they first enter prison.
3. Missouri went from one of the highest recidivism rates in the country in 2004 at 46 percent, to 36 percent five years later. Mainly, the change came through keeping technical parole violators out of prison. Missouri has also started looking into community alternatives to prison to try to cut it’s relatively high prison population.

PEW

California’s recidivism rate has also declined over the past few years: from 61 percent to 58 percent. Again, the change is coming from technical parole violators.

Potential changes to parole may further decrease that rate: under the “realignment” plan–signed into law in April, but not yet funded–parole violators will be sent to jail instead of prison, and violations will be subject to court review. Some argue that such changes will actually eventually increase new crimes.

PEW points out that it’s hard to definitively determine what variables affect a state’s crime rate. As for reliance on prison being the most effective strategy for reducing crime:

Florida and New York began the twenty-first century with nearly the same size prison population

(about 70,000 inmates). During the ensuing decade, Florida added 30,000 inmates and now has more than 100,000 persons behind bars. Meanwhile, New York’s prison population fell below 60,000. Yet the crime rate dropped in both states by about the same rate. In fact, New York’s crime drop was slightly larger (29.2 percent) compared with Florida’s (28.2 percent).