Marijuana Wednesday: Who could kill Proposition 19?

Alexodus / Flickr
Polls are showing Proposition 19, the ballot measure that if passed, would legalize recreational marijuana in California, on the up and up. So what could stop it now? Rolling Stone’s upcoming issue includes a feature by Ari Berman, “Just Say Now,” on the marijuana legalization debate underway in California. And the piece contains some interesting predictions on how Proposition 19 will play out politically. Specifically, the piece mentions three things that might kill the measure:
- First, minorities. Common wisdom recalls that Proposition 8 backers targeted the conservative sentiments of some minority communities. And when the measure passed, and exit polls showed African Americans and a good number of Latinos and Asians supporting the measure, some Prop 8 opponents cited the failure to win over these minority voters as a fatal flaw. (And then some full out put the blame for passage on African American voters, who according to polls, voted 70 percent in favor of Prop 8.) Fair? True? Considering Blacks make up about 6 percent of California’s voters, and almost half of white voters (63 percent of CA’s voters) supported Prop 8, maybe not. But that hasn’t stopped the Black vote from being a center of speculation for those watching the numbers on Proposition 19.
- Second, prison guards. Again we turn to a 2008 ballot proposition to predict Prop 19′s potential slayers. Proposition 5, which would have increased rehabilitation and reduced prison and parole time for nonviolent offenders (and would have changed some marijuana crimes from misdemeanors to infractions) suffered some major opposition by the state’s prison guard union, the California Correctional Peace Officers Association. Some would argue the CCPOA is not the cash-wielding, political powerhouse it’s rumored to be and did not single-handedly defeat Prop 5. CCPOA has not taken a public stance on Prop 19.
- The White House. Say this thing passes. Does that mean federal agents will flat out stop treating marijuana as an illegal drug? Certainly, medical marijuana’s legalization in California hasn’t eliminated feds from involving themselves in policing the drug, even when used as medicinal. However, Berman points out that New York state stopped enforcing the alcohol ban a decade before prohibition ended. Would feds treat this case the same way?
Overall, an interesting summary of the debate to date.
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